2024 Election Results Analysis : Part 1

Analysing the 2024 Elections: A Deep Dive into State-wise Performance and Candidate Selection

 

Image Credits: NDTV

Introduction

The 2024 election results have shaken a lot of BJP supporters and the day of result was tense and shocking for many like me. And there has been lot of talk, analysis, blame game, conspiracy theories floating around, hence I thought of giving a cold look at numbers and analysing the results in key states.

This analysis delves into the performance of different states, focusing on candidate selection, anti-incumbency factors, and overall election outcomes. By examining data from key states—Uttar Pradesh (UP), Maharashtra (MH), and Bihar—we can better understand the strategies that worked, those that failed, and the overall electoral dynamics.

State Selection

The states of Uttar Pradesh (UP), Maharashtra (MH), and Bihar were chosen for this analysis because they provide a comprehensive view of BJP's performance. UP and MH are the states where the BJP lost the most seats, while Bihar is a state where the BJP did not lose many seats. Additionally, UP has 80 constituencies, MH has 48, and Bihar has 40, making up 31% of the total Lok Sabha seats. This significant representation makes these states crucial for understanding the overall electoral trends. Also BJP lost 52 of sitting MPs from these 168 seats. Hence to analyse BJP's below par performance analysing these states is very important.

Deriving the Anti-incumbency Vote for the Sitting MP

In simple terms, the anti-incumbency vote refers to the tendency of voters to express dissatisfaction or disillusionment with incumbent candidates by voting against them in subsequent elections. 

One method of assessing the anti-incumbency vote involves analyzing the difference in lost votes between repeated and changed candidates in seats that were lost in the current election but had been won earlier. This approach allows us to attribute a portion of the lost votes to the incumbency factor, thus shedding light on the extent of voter discontent with incumbent candidates.

By comparing the vote reduction in seats where the BJP suffered defeat, we can distinguish between candidates who contested again (repeated candidates) and those who were replaced (changed candidates). The disparity in lost votes between these two groups helps us gauge the impact of incumbency on the election outcome and identify patterns of anti-incumbency sentiment among voters. 

So for example in Uttar Pradesh BJP lost 26 sitting seats where they repeated the candidates. The Average vote lost was 75000. They lost only 5 of the sitting seats where they changed the candidates. Here the average votes lost was 41000, hence we can say that the difference between these votes number can be attributed to the anti-incumbency assuming repeating candidate lost extra votes compared to a changed candidate because of his anti-incumbency.

Strategic Deficit Losses

Let us term the votes lost in seats where the BJP faced defeat despite changing the candidate as 'Strategic Deficit Losses'. These losses signal broader issues such as party performance, campaign effectiveness, local/national narratives, or organisational weaknesses. They reflect a shortfall in strategic planning and execution, highlighting areas where improvements are needed to enhance electoral success.

Uttar Pradesh (UP)

Election Outcomes

Category	Changed	Repeated	Total
Seats	24	51	75
WL	5	26	31
LL	7	4	13
LW	0	1	1
WW	12	20	32
Retention (%).	71%	43%	-

Seats Changed(%)

32%

Vote Loss Analysis

Average Vote lost	Changed	Repeated	Anti-incumbency Vote Lost
Won '19, Lost '24( WL)	41,000	75,000	34,000
Lost in both ( LL)	39,000	30,000	-
Won both (WW)	58,659	87,000	-

Notations

• WL: Won in 2019, Lost in 2024
• LL: Lost in both 2019 and 2024
• LW: Lost in 2019, Won in 2024
• WW: Won in both 2019 and 2024

Maharashtra (MH)

Election Outcomes

Category	Changed	Repeated	New	Total
Seats	9	15	4	28
WL	4	13	0	16
LL	1	0	1	2
LW	0	0	3	3
WW	4	2	0	6
Retention (%)	50%	14%	-	-

Seats Changed(%)

32%

Vote Loss Analysis

Average Vote Lost	Changed	Repeated	Anti-incumbency Vote Lost
Won '19, lost '24( WL)	32,724	85,631	52,907
Lost in both (LL)	-	-	-
Won both (WW)	52,874	14,850	-

Bihar

Election Outcomes

Category	Changed	Repeated	New	Total
Seats	3	13	1	17
WL	2	3	0	5
LL	0	0	0	0
LW	0	0	1	1
WW	1	10	0	11
Retention (%)	33%	77%	-	-

Seats Changed(%)

17%

Vote Loss Analysis

Average Vote Lost	Changed	Repeated	Anti-incumbency Vote Lost
Won '19, Lost '24 ( WL)	32,876	41,146	8,270
Lost both (LL)	-	-	-
Won both (WW)	29,199	28,583	-

Comparative Analysis

State	Strategic Deficit Losses	MP level Anti-incumbency Vote Lost	Average Vote Lost	Oppo. Vote Gain	Voter per Seat
UP	41,000	34,000	67,000	54,809	1,098,885
MH	32,724	52,907	64,254	1,56,000	1,191,235
Bihar	32,876	8,270	31,000	1,43,000	1,086,230

Insights

Uttar Pradesh

• Average Vote lost is more than Opponent's vote gain : 67,000 vs 54,809. Which means comparatively BJP supporters didn't come out to vote
• It also explains highest strategic deficit vote loss. Can be one of the important factor.
• Only 44% repeated could retain vs. 71% seats where candidates were changed were retained
• Significant candidate level Anti-incumbency across the state. Average effect: 34000
• Only one seat where Self Vote and Margin both improved for BJP was Dr. Mahesh sharma from Gautam buddha nagar

Maharashtra

• Opponent's gain in vote is 2.5 times that of self vote lost. 1,56,000 vs 64,254. Which means massive consolidation by runner's up and/or mobilization of new vote
• Strategic deficit loss same as Bihar ~ 33000
• Highest candidate anti-incumbency. 52907 vote difference between retained and changed flipped seats vote loss.
• No winning candidate could improve their vote number. Nitin Gadkari and Raksha Khadse were the only repeated candidates who won.
• Ram Satpute from Solapur was the losing candidate who increased the votes by ~20000, the opponent increased the number by 2,50,000 because of opposition consolidation
• 3 out of 5 new seats fought by BJP was won. Had they not contested, BJP's performance would have been dismal. New seats won are Satara, Ratnagiri and Palghar.

Bihar

• Huge gain in opponents vote. Almost 4.5 times of 'self vote lost'. 1,43,000 vs 31,000. 
• BJP saved in Bihar from massive defeat, because of huge margin in 2019 and less self vote lost in 2024
• Least anti incumbency vote lost of only 8000, indicates very strong candidates
• No winning candidate could add any new vote.

Conclusion

Uttar Pradesh

• Challenges: Performed worst in terms of countering opposition's narrative and organizational weaknesses. Highest strategic vote loss of 41,000 despite candidate changes.
• Opportunities: 
• Opponent has not gained much votes (Only 54,000 compared to 1.5L in other states). Hence result could be easily improved next time by mobilizing voters and effectively managing the narrative.
• Had more candidates been switched, results would have been better. Only 44% retention in repeated candidates versus 71% retention in changed candidates.

Maharashtra

• Challenges: 
• Performed worst in candidate selection. Only 14% of repeated candidates won.
• Had the highest anti-incumbency at the candidate level with 52,907 anti-incumbency votes. 
• Opposition consolidation and voter mobilisation was massive. Highest opposition voter increase. 
• Solutions:
• Need better candidates and significant pulloff of opposition votes now to gain back sweeping status

Bihar

• Challenges: High increase in opposition votes is a warning sign. If strong narrative building and getting confidence of opposition's voter is not done, next election will be very tough.
• Strengths: Exhibited strong candidate selection with minimal anti-incumbent votes. Good candidate selection practices will be crucial to maintaining performance.

In wrapping up, the loss in Uttar Pradesh isn't as devastating as it seems—it's a setback we can recover from with the right strategy tweaks and rallying our base. However, Bihar's performance next time around isn't a sure bet; we're sliding, and we need to slam on the brakes before it's too late. As for Maharashtra, it's our biggest blow yet, and it's time for a serious overhaul and major steps if we want to bounce back from this.

Hope, I could add value to the election analysis discourse going on the country right now with some logical analysis. Please comment on the blog post and let me know your thoughts/feedback. Suggestions are also welcome. 

Attaching my raw excel sheet which I made after few days of work. Open-sourcing it for others to use and improve and for feedback. https://shorturl.at/RGcTN

Advitiya Karmayogi - Narendra Modi

The media and opposition are going berserk over Modi’s two-day meditation at Dhyan Mandapam at Vivekananda Rock. It seems like a fitting conclusion to the hustle and bustle of the two-month-long election campaign. This election felt like a match between a Yogi, focused with his mind, body, and spirit on his goal, and an opposition that was haywire, making incoherent statements, offering unachievable promises, and presenting half-baked narratives like wealth distribution. It was a contest between a ‘Nispruhi’ man (detached) and a heated-up, hot-headed, directionless group. Consequently, the result will be as long foretold.

If we zoom out and look at Modi as a person shaping Bharat for a glorious and prosperous future, it becomes evident that his impact is much more profound than what we have witnessed so far. We have seen glimpses of his personality, which a distant observer wouldn’t have noticed until now. However, with his 200 rallies and 80 interviews this time, we could get a closer look.

My reading is that he is an ‘Advitiya Karma Yogi,’ a rare phenomenon we have hardly seen for many decades or centuries in our recent history. He is a figure who will continue to inspire many in Bharat’s journey. Many journalists asked him about the legacy he would like to leave behind. Naturally, he diverted and gave a politically correct answer. But if we consider his legacy, it will be a benchmark set so high in leadership that it will serve as a gold standard in world politics. It will be a living example of the Karma Yogi described by Krishna in the Gita. He is unfazed by external and internal opposition, works 18-20 hours non-stop, and has been doing so for the last 40 years, focused on one goal: working in seva of Bharat Mata for her glory and the prosperity of her children.

Over the course of his public life, he has continually added skills to his personal repertoire. Consider his planning skills, exemplified by initiatives like Jan Dhan to Kisan Samman Nidhi. When he started those bank accounts, people mocked him for supposedly opening accounts to transfer 15 lakhs. But he had a step-by-step plan: open 50 crore accounts, bring the unbanked into the banking system, empower them with Mudra loans, provide direct benefits of subsidies efficiently, build 4 crore homes with subsidies deposited directly into accounts, and rather than waiving farm loans—which helps big farmers inefficiently—start from the bottom of the farmer pyramid with the Kisan Samman Nidhi. This planning and execution, which would awe the best CEOs, was done by a self-educated person from a humble background on a 140 crore population scale. This alone can be a case study unheard of in world history.

Look at his electioneering skills, which involve mass communication and an understanding of sociology and human psychology at both fundamental and mass levels. After the first phase, when turnout was low due to multiple factors, he brought energy back to the election by daily countering the opposition narrative and presenting an alternative narrative that energized not only his voters but also the fence-sitters. Doing this across the length and breadth of India while addressing local factors and managing a coalition is unparalleled.

His life is also a blueprint for becoming such a Karma Yogi. It shows what kind of Saadhna one must do, the Sevabhaav one must work with, and the preparation, learning, observation, and execution skills one must gather. It’s not an easy, quick fix of a 1 or 2-year course; it’s the result of hard work and dedication in public life over decades. Future leaders and managers can learn a lot from his life, his way of functioning, his management, and his organizational style. If studied well, research on his life and way of functioning can serve as a leadership and management guide for future generations. We, as Bharatiyas, are fortunate to have him as a leader. The best service to his legacy would be to learn from his leadership and personality and try to imbibe the best we can in our daily lives.

Diwali : A time for new ideas, a time for new plans

Diwali, a time to light up our homes, a time to celebrate triumph of good over evil, a time to relish with friends and family is also a good time to relax, to think, to ideate and to plan.

Think about it, when was the last time you were relaxed, had 4-5 days of leisure time, free from all the pressures and deadlines, free from your tiresome daily routine. When was the last time you didn't have to wake up early so that you can either catch the office bus or rush by your car before the traffic catches up. When was the last time you could read a book late into the night without worrying about tomorrow's deadlines, which you are sure you are not going to meet. Diwali is the time when all these tensions and pressures takes a backseat and you feel relaxed.

And as a famous author once said - 
"Creativity comes when you are relaxed and when it comes it brings ideas that rock your world". 
Hence, this Diwali use this leisure time for reading a book and getting inspired, for putting the idea, which you had in your head for so long, on a piece of paper, for bouncing off your thoughts across friends and family. Spending your brain time on your idea, through writing, discussing, debating will increase its potential exponentially. According to me this is a solid mantra for ideation - relax, think, write and share.

Now coming to second aspect - Planning. At times it might seem boring, mundane, not yielding results etc. It might also sound uncool to many in our generation, the Gen-Y and Z  (I am not sure whether I qualify for Gen-Z but I would like to believe that I am definitely part of the Gen-Y). We are impatient, we get excited by instant likes, re-tweets and followers, we are the ones who believe in quick execution. But as someone rightly said 'It pays to plan ahead. It wasn't raining when Noah built the ark'.
Hence, use this time to plan your future. Plan your career - you may plan your next switch or if you are an aspiring entrepreneur you might plan when you want to quit and how you want to startup. Plan your finances - Take a look at your bank balance. Is your money just sitting idle in your savings account, earning you a meagre 3-4% return. Plan how you want to increase your wealth. Learn about better saving mechanisms : PPF, bonds, SIPs in mutual funds etc. Plan your life - Plan your major life events - it can be marriage, or having a child, or buying a new house. This will also help you plan your finances as well.

And yes, after you make all these plans do not kill your instinct to execute them. Execution as per plans will give you results. 
Happy Diwali. Happy New Year. Happy Ideating. Happy Planning. !!!

The Pursuit of Happiness

My first poem....

The pursuit of happiness

Search for a treasure in the wilderness

Is it the end or is it endless?

The pursuit of happiness

Its my right but still i have to fight
A rare time when its not against others' might
Its within me but still out of sight
Its only i who can show me the light

The pursuit of happiness....

The road is so slippery
One moment seems victory
At the next you are in a misery
Is there any who can claim mastery

The learned say it is a temporary emotion
Some proclaim it is just a deception
Many say it was lost at the time of creation
But i wont stop till i can shout in elation

The pursuit of happiness
Search for a treasure in the wilderness
Is it the end or is it endless
The pursuit of happiness

First Blog-- Book review on 'The Difficulty of being good - Gurucharan Das'

I had written this book review as part of a pre-joining assignment for Shailesh J. Mehta School of Management, IIT Bombay. It was the first structured article I had ever written so I thought of publishing it....So go ahead and pour in your feedbacks........

Gurucharan Das, former CEO of Procter and Gamble and author of ‘India Unbound’ inquires on the ‘Difficulties of being good’ by studying and analyzing the moral dilemmas arising in the great Indian epic Mahabharata. After an early retirement from a successful professional career he experiences a void in his life. He sets out in search for the true meaning and aims of life by examining ancient Indian texts. He gets fascinated by the scope and content of the Mahabharata and after six years of patient and complete reading of the text tries to find out the answer to the moral problems, which even existed at the time of the epic as they do today, in the book ‘Difficulty of being good – On the subtle art of Dharma’.

In the quest for finding out the purpose of life author realizes that by depicting the virtues and frailties of various characters of the Mahabharata, the epic is trying to bring out the nature of dharma (the word has various meanings in Indian spiritualism but in its present context it can be related to moral well being). Gurucharan Das probes into the characters of the heroes of Mahabharata to highlight the virtue or failing they represent. He tries to find out the root cause of the existence of such quality or failing in human nature by looking at societal and cultural structures, other philosophical works and even sciences such as evolutionary biology. The author also emphasizes the implications of these moral ideas on the civic society and private lives. He tries to relate each moral idea with economic, political or a personal incident to deepen reader’s understanding. His education in western philosophy, his elaborate readings of ancient Indian texts as well as his broad spectrum of economical, political and social know-how allows him to delve into these diverse fields with élan. He interleaves the stories of the great Indian epic with those of the Greek epics and the ideals discussed here with those of western philosophies to encompass the global audience. By doing so it seems that the author is advocating that the moral ideas being discussed are not only pertaining to classical Indian psyche but even to the modern global collective consciousness.

The author along with discussing various attributes of the heroes of the Mahabharata spells out important lessons for the reader in economic, political, social and personal spheres. While talking about Duryodhana’s envy author discusses the presence of the positive and negative forms of the same emotion in our own lives. He quotes the examples of envy between Ambani brothers as well as the positive aspect of envy which reinforces competition and is a pillar for sustaining free-market economic activities. Similarly through draupadi’s courageous questions in the Kuru court author conveys important ideas regarding sovereignty of slaves and women. The nature of war, its consequences and the view point of a soldier and a political leader about the wars are brought out by various emotions and actions of Arjuna, Krishna, Ashwathama and Yudhisthira. The philosophy of human actions ‘nishkama karma’ as advocated by Krishna and practiced by Bhisma is well brought out in various parts of the book. The nature of caste systems and various harms they cause is discussed at length by depiction of the ‘wronged hero’ of Mahabharata Karna. The flow of the book though seemingly jumps from one hero’s character evaluation to another the author does a good job at maintaining a parallel flow of the original narrative of the epic. The reader thus enjoys the poetic narrative with the intellectually probing, absorbing and satisfying discussion over moral ideals.

The question over the moral ideals, ‘The difficulty of being good’, which the author talks about is not merely the difficulty that one faces in being good but its more of the difficulty that one has in finding out answers to the question such as ‘Why be good?’, ‘What is good?’ and ‘Can good be achieved?’. One of such incidents is very well depicted in the book when Draupadi asks Yudhisthira about ‘Why is he insistent on standing by dharma when dharma doesn’t protect him’. The author furthers this question with other references later to ask ‘What is the nature of dharma’ and ‘Can it be achieved’.

This quest for the search of the elusive dharma goes on through out the book as it does in the Mahabharata. The characters and the author together proclaim that ‘Dharma is subtle’. Through this they try to bring out the ambiguous and incomprehensible nature of certain moral ideals especially when they stand opposing each other.

Through the chapter ‘Mahabharata’s Dharma’ and the author’s own conclusion, the book tries to bring out a coherent message of compassion as the highest virtue and a awareness of the natural tendency of human beings to be moral as evolved social and intelligent creatures. Seeing our own self in somebody else’s place would make us realize that one should not do to somebody what one doesn’t intend to be done on oneself. Along with this author also tries to bring out a rational morality concept of reciprocal altruism which is validated even through scientific techniques of game theory. But the author acknowledges the ambivalence that the Mahabharata and incidentally the book leave the reader with when it proclaims ‘Dharma is subtle’ i.e. it is so subtle that we are unable to grasp it and are still searching for it. Through this uncertainty the author tries to give another message that is very relevant in present times that moral absolutism and fundamentalism is not the answer to any crisis, it is through tolerance, pluralism and continuous evolution of morality that one can face these uncertainties.The author’s style of self reflection actively engages the reader as one feels a personal touch attached to the narrative. The book provides lessons for the governments and citizens alike to reflect upon morality and not mere narrow-minded and short-sighted selfishness. The book is an enjoyable read and keeps the reader’s intellect actively engaged throughout.